January 21, 2009 06:40 PM UTC

GOP: Bigger Fish To Fry Than Bennet in '10?

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• by: Colorado Pols

That’s the possibility raised by Grand Junction Sentinel reporter Mike Saccone over the weekend:

The decision by four Republican senators in competitive states to retire could complicate the party’s hope that Michael Bennet, the man selected to replace Sen. Ken Salazar, D-Colo., will be an easy seat to pick off in 2010.

With at least four Republican-held seats open, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and its independent peers will focus on retaining the seats they have before investing in a pickup opportunity, according to Colorado political observers.

“To the extent that they’ve got other seats to defend and have to put their money there, that’s less they’ve got to put here,” said John Straayer, a political science professor at Colorado State University.

Further complicating the Republican Party’s situation are the location of their seats: Three of the four senators stepping down – George Voinovich, R-Ohio, Christopher Bond, R-Mo., and Mel Martinez, R-Fla. – represent battleground states.

The fourth retiree, Sen. Sam Brownback, R- Kan., comes from a red state, but difficulties for Republicans could arise in the event popular Democratic Gov. Kathleen Sebelius chooses to run for the seat.

Republicans also will have a series of seats to defend in states that voted for President-elect Barack Obama, including Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and North Carolina…

Our view: as the 2008 elections drew to a close, the GOP was forced to shift their dwindling resources into defending “safe” Senators–some of whom, like Elizabeth Dole, turned out not only unsafe but doomed to fail. In any case, it was the late-inning decision to shift resources that effectively pulled the plug on Colorado Senate candidate Bob Schaffer’s campaign a couple of weeks early.

It’s impossible to predict today what the electoral climate for Republicans will be in 2010, except to assume that it likely won’t be as negative. That said, the GOP has to look at a number of scenarios to determine where their best chance to pick up seats lies–and as long as they’re not fighting rearguard actions to defend incumbents and hold “safe” open seats next year as they were in 2008, they can’t help but look to Colorado’s not-really “incumbent” as a potential opportunity.

How realistic an opportunity, you ask? The answer to that question lies with newly-minted Senator Bennet.